Fire Weather Outlook: October - December, 2009
Updated October 5, 2009
CURRENT CONDITIONS
After fluctuating between dry and wet periods in the early and middle part of the year we have seen the return of a more typical Florida summer pattern with scattered or isolated rain showers occurring almost daily. Temperatures have also remained near normal during the past few months. The neutral ENSO condition that was in place in June has changed into an El Niño condition. There are no drought conditions currently in the state at this time.
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK
The current El Niño condition is expected to strengthen and persist into the winter months. This will result in above normal chance for precipitation for the next three months and near normal temperatures. Depending on the strength of the current El Niño, which if it reaches the upper end of the forecast, we may see wet conditions persist through the Spring of 2010. El Niño usually helps to lower tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin and this has been reflected in the decreased number of storms being forecasted.
SUMMARY
Drought conditions should not be present as we exit the current year and enter the new year. The strength and persistence of the current El Niño may reduce burn opportunities during the dormant season and possibly next year’s growing season burn period. Tropical activity is typically reduced during an El Niño event; however there is always a chance of a land falling hurricane even during El Niño: Lili in 2002.
The next seasonal outlook will be the first week in January, 2010. Should there be any questions, please contact dof_support@doacs.state.fl.us
|
